RELATION BETWEEN THE WINNING OF FIDESZ PARTY WITH THE NUMBER OF INCOMING ASYLUM SEEKERS IN HUNGARY

: The migrant crisis that occurred back in 2015 has sparked various political turbulence in European countries. One of the highest “first - time application” countries is Hungary. But as the number of asylum seekers grows, the Hungarian government considered itself overburdened and thus decided to take action to limit the inflow number of asylum-seekers. This situation gives Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz Party a way to keep campaigning for anti-immigrant policy which he believes will gain massive support. This journal uses a mixed-research method to find out the relation between the winning Fidesz Party with the number of incoming asylum seekers in Hungary. The analysis will be based on a regression process to determine the correlation between the votes that caused the Fidesz Party to win the last five general elections of Hungary with the quantity of asylum seekers in Hungary during the election year and supported by data observed from literature research.


Introduction
Migrant is a person who moves from one place to another due to several reasons.The difference between migrants and refugees lies in their reason to leave their own country.A refugee is someone who has been forced to move from their country and a migrant is someone who chooses to move from their country (Eldridge,n.d: 77).The motive for why migrants decided to move from their country is varied.Some of them migrate because of the hostile surroundings of their homeland.Therefore, to avoid the harshness of conflicts, violence, and war, people migrate to a safer place and could continue their lives safe and sound.The other reason why a person migrates is based on economic reasons.The economic condition of one's homeland is unstable.For example, there is high inflation, high unemployment, and high rates of poverty.Based on these reasons, a person migrates to a place where there is a better economic condition and in the end, he or she could find decent work to support their daily activity.
In the 21st Century, there was one huge wave of people who migrated from one place to another.This phenomenon is often called the "European Migrant Crisis 2015".Some people already migrated to Europe before 2015, but the number of migrants is not as high as in 2015 and still manageable by the European Union (BBC, 2018).According to the UNHCR in 2014, there were less than 500,000 migrants who moved to Europe (BBC, 2018).In 2015, however, there was a high number of migrants who came and entered Europe.According to the UNHCR, there were an estimated 1,015,078 migrants who flooded the continent (BBC, 2018).In 2015, migrants came from various regions from all around the world such as from West Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Eastern Europe.But the majority of the migrants come from Middle Eastern countries, namely Syria and Iraq (BBC, 2018).Also, from South Asia, the majority of the migrants come from Afghanistan.
To reach Europe, the migrants have two route options.The land route and the other one is the sea route.The land route stretches from Syria, Turkey, Greece, and Western Europe called the Eastern Mediterranean route.Meanwhile, the sea route stretches from northern Africa to the coast of Malta, Italy, and Spain called Western Mediterranean, Central Mediterranean, and the Black Sea routes.Greece received many immigrants according to the UNHCR, as Greece is situated geographically bordered by Turkey, which is the origin of the immigrants (BBC, 2015).The sea route is used by African migrants.The destinations of these migrants are the Italian coast and Spain.However, the deadliest route in the Mediterranean Sea.Many of the ships that carry migrants were loaded and sank to the sea.According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNCR), there were 3,211 refugees reported dead or missing due to the accident in the Mediterranean Sea in 2016 (DW, 2016).
Germany, Italy and Hungary are the top three countries for the immigrant's first time application.In 2017, Hungary gave recognition to 1291 applications, 367 asylum-seekers in 2018, and only 60 people who received positive decisions from the Hungarian government (Hauswedell, 2020).Why did the immigrant choose Hungary although Hungary is stringent regarding the migrant policy?At least there are two answers.First, Hungary is a transit country because it is situated geographically on the external border of the EU.When the immigrant departed from Greece, they immediately went to Hungary for transit or to request an application there.Moreover, both Eastern and Southeastern migration routes cross Hungary, making Hungary the first country to go to other western European countries.Second, Hungary has a relatively stable economy compared to Greece and Italy.The two reasons stated before serve as "pull factors" for the immigrants to migrate to Hungary (IOM Hungary, 2014).
However, as the number of asylum seekers grows, the Hungarian government considered itself overburdened with asylum applications after receiving 60000 "illegal immigrants" that year .They anounced to no longer receive back applicants who had crossed the borders to other EU countries, thus practically Hungary is withdrawing itself from Dublin Regulation (Than & Nasralla, 2015).Moreover, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban introduced an anti-immigrant policy which made Hungary an "unfriendly" country for asylum seekers.According to a research poll conducted by Pew Research Centre, 76% of Hungarian voted that refugees or asylum seekers that have been accepted in Hungary will increase the likelihood of terrorism in their country (Wike et al., 2016).Based on the public perception itself, it is clear that Viktor Orban gains massive support from his people.This public support paves the way for Orban to keep campaigning antiimmigrant policy.Furthermore, when Orban visited the White House in Washington D.C., President Trump showered Orban with praise.Donald Trump said Orban has done a "tremendous job" in keeping his country safe (Borger & Walker, 2019).
Moreover, Victor Orban also perceived immigrants as a threat to the thousand-years old Christian culture.According to his statement at a joint-press conference with the Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern in Budapest in 2016, he stated that massive immigrant influx into Europe is a poison.Thus, posing a great public security and terror risk.This labeling act done by Orban was not only targeting individuals or groups, but also NGOs who assisted asylum seekers.In 2018, Hungary's parliament passed a package made up of three different bills which were christened as the "STOP Soros" package by the governing parties.Under this law, individuals or groups that help illegal migrants gain status will be liable to prison terms.Orban perceived them as a facilitator who accommodated human smuggling and illegal residence (Stoyanova & Smet, 2022: 36).
In 2018, Hungary also imposed a new regulation which allowed only 2 asylum seekers per day to cross from Hungary to Serbia.Consequently, the number of asylum seekers decreased due to several constraints imposed by Orban's government.Although Orban's immigrant policy is aggressive, the Hungarian public supports Orban's decision.It is shown by huge public votes towards Orban's party, the Fidesz Party, in five consecutive election periods.
There are several articles used as references for the analysis of this research.But there are two articles that are somewhat more relevant.The first article is written by Krisztina Juhász, entitled "Assessing Hungary's Stance on Migration and Asylum in Light of the European and Hungarian Migration Strategies", this article mainly talks about the situation when European Union set out an immediate and medium-term actions composed in one strategic document called the European Agenda on Migration to tackle the 2015 Migrants Crisis.
On the other hand, earlier in 2013 the Hungarian government already adopted its own migration strategy.Although there are two document strategies regarding migrations, Juhász explained that Hungary's government actions and communications are contrary to both the European Agenda on Migration and their own migration strategy.Some of the contradictions are there were still quite a lot xenophobic tone and messaging of the anti-migrant billboard campaign which contrary to the aims and objectives of Hungary's migration strategy about fostering open-minded and receptive social attitudes to migration and ruling out the potential use and exploitation of prejudice and lack of appropriate information about migration among the Hungarian population.
There were also amendments to the Asylum Act and other associated rules that contravene both European and international asylum policy standards.It's indicates that asylum and international protection in Hungary is barely accessible to asylum seekers.The Hungarian government also criminalized asylum seekers who enter the country irregularly which is contrary to the Convention on the Status of Refugees.Then the Hungarian government opposed the relocation scheme (quota system) while on the other hand this scheme is an important part of immigration and asylum policy based in European and Hungarian strategies on migration.Based on these contradictions Juhász concluded that there is something else that seems to be taking place of Hungary's immigration and asylum policy, their stance towards international and European commitments when it comes to immigration and asylum might be affected by their wishes to put certain themes on the political agenda.The article shows how domestic political conditions could affect government stance towards specific issues.
The second paper is written by Theresa Gessler, Gergő Tóth and Johannes Wachs.Entitled "No country for asylum seekers?How short-term exposure to refugees influences attitudes and voting behavior in Hungary" This paper mainly discusses how exposure to refugees during the 2015 migrant's crisis to political outcomes in Hungary.They found how the exposure galvanized anti-refugee attitudes specifically among right-wing partisans.Right-wing voters are significantly less tolerant after short term encounters.With this fact, both of the right-wing parties that exist in Hungary mostly competed with each other to present tougher immigration policies in order to gain more votes from the people.This research is mainly constructed based on those two articles.However, the analysis will be more focused on the relation between the winning political party in Hungary.The Fidesz Party, with the incoming number of asylum seekers in Hungary in general.Therefore, this research aims to analyze and measure how the ruling party of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Fidesz Party affects the number of asylum seekers that wish to apply for asylum in Hungary using quantitative methods.
To analyze and measure the relation between the winning of the ruling party of Hungary affects the number of asylum seekers in Hungary, this research uses a quantitative research method with regression analysis.According to Aliaga and Anderson, quantitative research aims to explain an issue or phenomenon through gathering data in numerical form and analyzing with the aid of mathematical methods; in particular statistics (Apuke, 2017: 40-47).Meanwhile, regression analysis allows market researchers to analyze relationships between one independent and one dependent variable (Sarstedt & Mooi, 2014: 193-233).Regression analysis is also defined as a collection of statistical methods used to estimate the relationship between the dependent variable and one or more independent variables.It can be used to assess the strength of the relationship between variables and to model future relationships between them (Taylor, 2023: t.p).This research is also using qualitative descriptive, where the purpose of descriptive research is to describe a phenomenon and its characteristics.This research is more concerned with what than how or why something happens.Therefore, observation and survey tools are often used to collect data (Gall et al., 2007: 79).This research uses the numbers of votes cast for Fidesz Party in 2006Party in , 2010Party in , 2014Party in , 2018, and , and Hungarian election as the independent variable.As for dependent variables, this journal uses asylum seekers that wish to stay in Hungary in the same year of the election.
We also conducted a systematic literature review on google scholar using the Publish or Perish application for the basis data that will be visualized through Vos Viewer application.
These steps are used to support the related to the keywords consisting of this research.This research collects the publications related to the winning of Fidesz Party with the number of incoming asylum seekers in Hungary.To filter the publications, this study uses keywords which are: "Asylum Seekers", "Fidesz Party", "Hungary", "Viktor Orban", as can be seen in figure one.These keywords are deemed significant for our study, as they can effectively limit the related publications that will be used for our data visualization to support our argument.The period of publication from the year 2006 to 2022 is chosen as this research aims to seek the correlation between both variables.As a result, there are 2510 publications found, but only 940 related articles were used via Publish or Perish application.Figure 2 shows the details of the publications screening.The data of relevant publications is then saved in tris format and then processed via Vos Viewer to be visualized.This study set the minimum occurrences of a term into 10, meaning that it needs 10 times of occurrence for a term to be included in this study.There are relevant terms from 4043 keywords/terms but only 128 meet the threshold.For the following step, the terms are then processed into a map that are displayed in the next part.There are 3 kinds of maps and one table to clusterize the fields related to this topic.For further explanation, can be seen in the discussion section.

Systematic Literature Review on Relation between The Winning of Fidesz Party with The Number of Incoming Asylum Seekers in Hungary
The result of the systematic literature review produces a satisfying map to explain the related keywords that represent the topics regarding the relation between the winning of the Fidesz Party with the number of incoming asylum seekers in Hungary.The other sector that may correlate with it can be seen in the as follows: From the map above, it can be seen that the discussion related to the field at first consists of several words such as "economic migrant", "east central europe", and "securitization".The color is changing to green that contains words such as "law", "poland", "nationalism", "opposition party" that indicate the domestic situation.Move to the yellow color that consists of words such as "muslim migrant", "migrant policy", and "impact".This situation is showing that there is correlation between the migrant policy and the muslim migrant.
There is also a visualization map that explains the density of the keywords/terms that can elaborate more on the grouping of the words.The density is emphasizing whether a keyword is more or less discussed.The keywords and terms that have significance with each other are discovered by the proximity they have which can be seen in the map: As you can see from the map above there are several keywords that the scholars discussed.There are several words that are very significant that are represented by the thickest density which are "Law", and "Response".Interestingly, there is the word "Poland", which means that the situation has a close relation with Poland.
The other type of finding in this systematic literature review is the clusters of the keywords/terms that were discovered from the data processing and visualization.These clusters of keywords may also be used to explain certain issues that happen and correlate with the grand topic.The cluster actually can be seen in the network map of the keywords.Each cluster represents a certain sub-discussion regarding the keywords related with asylum seekers in Hungary.Another topic is how the votes that Fidesz Party got in the last 5 elections affected it.The detail of each cluster can be examined on the table 1 It can be seen from the table that there are a lot and various terms and keywords related with the discussion of the quantity of asylum seekers in Hungary that are determined by the votes and the winning of Fidesz Party in the last 5 elections of Hungary.The keywords are verified, with some referring to the individual like Viktor Orban himself; geographical features like neighboring countries including Poland, or regional areas like central Europe and eastern Europe.However, there are particular keywords among the terms that are visualized that shows the complexity of this case.
Keywords like 'muslim', 'radical', 'securitization threat', shows that there are serious measures to link this case to political capital for certain groups.By applying certain stereotypes towards the migrants more specifically to the asylum seekers.The rejection notion can be used to fuel sympathy and support for certain interest groups or political parties.On the other hand, the step to politicize the topic has already been done, shown by the existence of securitization discussion and activity among the literature found.This serves as a good basis for approaching and analyzing the relation between the winning of the Fidesz Party and the number of the asylum seekers in Hungary.

Relation between The Winning of Fidesz Party with The Number of Incoming Asylum Seekers in Hungary
This research aims to analyze and measure how the ruling party of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Fidesz Party affects the number of asylum seekers that wish to apply for asylum in Hungary.A regression table will be produced to examine the phenomenon.By identifying the total votes of Fidez Party in 2006Party in , 2010Party in , 2014Party in , 2018Party in , and 2022.Hungarian election as the independent variable (later represented by letter X) and the quantity of asylum seekers that want stay in Hungary in the same year of the election (will be represented by letter Y) as can be seen in table 1 below: After determining the dependent and independent variable, a regression process using R is conducted to determine the influence or how significant X (the votes of Fidesz Party in 2006Party in , 2010Party in , 2014Party in , 2018Party in , and 2022 Hungarian election) affects Y (number of asylum seekers that want to enter Hungary in the year of election since 2006).
The regression table produced by R using data above is as follow: From both of the table we can see that the result is actually interesting.As the relation between X and Y shown -0.023, means that one increase in the vote of Fidesz Party is equal to the reduction of number of asylum seekers that want to enter Hungary in the year of election in the country by 0.023 person, or about 2 percent in the decrease.However, R determined that this result is somehow is not significant enough to draw a certain conclusion on that, as there is no symbol * shown after the result.The limited number of observations (5, from the last 5 elections held in Hungary) may also contribute to this uncertainty of results from the research.Furthermore, R2 shows that there is about 33% correlation between the variables observed.While it shows quite a small number of correlations, the limited number of observations again limit the precision of the research.As also shown by the big number of residual standard errors.Still, the research needs to be conducted to show how important it is to study the correlation between political climate and the urge of asylum seekers to enter a certain country.However, on the other side of the story, it also can be seen that the votes that caused the Fidesz Party to win the election is a factor that at least affects the decrease in the number of asylum seekers who want to stay in Hungary by about ⅓.Certainly, that assumption is still very obscure as it is not being supported with other empirical data.However, the other ⅔ part of the factor can be observed based on the policies conducted by the government of Hungary towards asylum seekers and even non-citizen who want to reside in Hungary in general.
Meanwhile, from the qualitative data obtained, the victory and number of votes gained by the Fidesz Party in the last five elections had a significant impact on the number of asylum seekers entering Hungary.It is also the result of Hungary's people's sentiment towards immigrants.The ruling Fidesz Party actively and successfully employs right-wing, conservative, and anti-migrant discourse at the same time.One of the pillars of the Hungarian government's strategy is anti-immigrant rhetoric, which consistently has popular support, especially when it is followed by criticism of the official European Commision structures .Consequently, the asylumseekers who wish to apply protection in Hungary discarded their plan and seek to other countries which are more asylumseekers friendly.

Conclusion
The decreasing number of asylum seekers can be concluded into several points.First, the tightened-up policy regarding asylum seeker application by the government.This indicates that the policy might not reflect the Hungarian people's urge.Second, the concern of the asylum seekers themselves who think Hungary tends to be unfriendly with them.Indicated by the victory of the far-right political party in the 5 consecutive elections (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022) which perpetuate the power of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as also supported by the result of a regression table produced by R and Microsoft Excel.Furthermore, this research we also hope that there will be further study about this topic using another case and variables in different countries.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Google Scholar search for relevant articles Source: Google Scholar 2023

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Quantity and the statistics of publications used in this study from Google Scholar from 2006-2022.Source: Publish and Perish Program 2023

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Threshold of occurrences of terms used from 2006-2022.Source: Publish and Perish Program 2023Moving on to the next phase, the reduction step for the terms is conducted.By default, only 60% of the most relevant terms are included, making only 77 terms qualified from the total 128 terms.

Figure 4 .
Figure 4.The number of terms to be selected in the study.Source: Publish and Perish Program 2023

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Network visualization of terms generated from publications related to the winning of Fidesz Party with the number of incoming asylum seekers in Hungary.Source: VosViewer Data ProcessingAnother map explains the time-based overlay of the terms (figure2), which includes the year of publications.The second map showed the shifting of the trends regarding the topic.The shifting is represented by the color changing.The past is presented by the dark blue color, while the recent trend is represented by the yellow color.The detail can be seen below:

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Density visualization of terms relevant to the research Source: VosViewer Data Processing

Picture 1 :
Regression Result based on Fidesz Party Votes & Number of Asylum Seekers Who want to Enter Hungary in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 based on R This study also tried to process the regression based on the same data through another program, in this case, Microsoft Excel is used.When run through Excel, the result of the regression can be seen as follow: Picture 2: Regression Result based on Fidesz Party Votes & Number of Asylum Seekers Who want to Enter Hungary in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 based on Microsoft Excel

Table 1 .
: Clusters of Keywords/Terms Relevant in the Study Based on the Visualization Map justice, party, law, poland

Table 1 :
Independent and Dependent Variable Used in the Research